New York Daily News - http://www.nydailynews.com
And the winner is ...
By MICHELE INGRASSIA
Sunday, October 10th, 2004

The presidential polls are dead even. The spin doctors are spinning the candidates every which way. What's a confused voter to do?
Well, if you want to guess the outcome of this year's President Bush-John Kerry slugfest, forget the traditional measures, which have gone up and down faster than the hemlines on Seventh Ave.

Which, in fact, brings us to the old Hemline Theory of Election Prognosticating: Shorter hemlines are supposed to be good for the Dems, falling hemlines favor the GOP. But fashionistas have been scoffing at that one for years.

Then there's the not-so-venerable theory of Dow Jones averages, which claims that the incumbent benefits from a Dow that's up in the weeks after the convention, and the challenger benefits from a drop. (Duh.)

With less than a month to go, it's time to turn to the alternatives, like the winner of the last Washington Redskins home game before Election Day, which has never, ever been wrong. What pollster can claim such a lofty track record?

Redskins rule


Hard to believe that a bunch of sweaty guys in jockstraps and cleats could determine the results of the presidential sweepstakes, but this one's the gold standard: Ever since the Redskins moved to D.C. in 1937, the outcome of their last home game before Election Day has predicted the winner, says Steve Hirdt, executive vice president of the Elias Sports Bureau, who discovered this bit of esoterica.

"When the 'Skins have won the last game prior to the election, the incumbent party retained its hold on the White House. When they lost, the party out of power has won the presidency."

The Skins System has proved right from 1940, when Washington beat Pittsburgh and FDR captured an unprecedented third term, through 2000, when the Tennessee Titans won and Tennessean Al Gore lost. They even predicted JFK's razor-thin victory in 1960, an election rife with allegations of bribery and vote stealing. "Just think, Kennedy's father could have saved all that money paying off the steelworkers in West Virginia and voters in Chicago," Hirdt jokes. This year's last preelection homer is Oct. 31 versus Green Bay. Can the 'Skins go 17 for 17 - Presidents, that is?

By the numbers

Bridgett Walther plays with numbers for a living, and using Bush and Kerry's birth dates, the numerologist for Elle magazine has come up with predictions that are equal parts calculation and interpretation. Bush's "destiny number," she says, is 6, obtained by adding the numerals of his birth date: 7+6+1+9+4+6=33. Then she adds up the last two digits: 3+3=6. "Six is very glib. Sometimes, that's charming as hell; other times, it's embarrassing as hell. He has trouble with concentrating and finishing what he started."

Kerry, she says, has a "destiny number" of 4, which she gets by adding his birth date (12+11+1+9+4+3=40) and then adding the final two numbers together (4+0). "Four is all about life is hard. There's going to be a battle; it won't be easy. But he starts slow and has a great finish."

Walther's most telling date, though, is Election Day: 1+1+2+2+ 0+0+4=10. Or 1, when the last two digits are added together. "If you add 1 to Bush's 6, you get 7, which is a bit of a smug number: 'I'm just so much better than you that I don't have to talk to you anymore.'" And if you add 1 to Kerry's 4: "That's a 5. It's all about party - a huge celebration, where he's over the moon, where there's not enough Champagne in the world to celebrate."

Caffeine craziness


Four years ago, 7-Eleven launched its first presidential drinkoff, offering voters a choice of Bush and Gore coffee cups. The winner: Bush with a bean-size win (though the majority of caffeine addicts actually opted for the "Don't Care/Undecided" cup). But with more than 6 million votes cast, the chain is brewing a new pot of java. "We think it's really a great reminder to encourage Americans to participate in the polling process," says 7-Eleven spokesman Kevin Gardner.

This year's balloting, which runs through Election Day, features 20-ounce cups for Bush, Kerry and Undecideds (who are running away with more than 68% of the votes.) And unlike the real thing, there are no limits - except your bladder - on how many times you can weigh in. Follow state-by-state updates at www.7-Eleven.com.


In the stars

Though astrology can't predict the outcome of an election, astrologist Susan Miller says it can indicate "pressures" and "opportunities." And, based on their birth dates, Bush (July 6, 1946, 7:26 a.m., New Haven, Conn.) and Kerry (Dec. 11, 1943, 8:03 a.m., Aurora, Colo.) apparently have plenty of both.

With four planets in Gemini (the sign of the twins), Kerry, not surprisingly, is a sharp debater. "He gets criticized for waffling, but he is seeing both sides of a question," Miller says. But that won't necessarily put him over the top. Bush, she says, has all his "progressed planets in Libra - we progress planets to how old you are - which is lucky for him."

She says Kerry will try to reach for the moon, but the planets point to a slight edge for Bush in the debates and in the election. Or maybe not. The astrological wild card is a total eclipse on Oct. 27. "It's one of the tools the universe uses to enact very big changes and reveal information." At the last eclipse, the Abu Ghraib prison scandal exploded. This time? "Oct. 27 is when the fat lady sings." And even if Bush wins, Miller says that won't be the end of his struggles. "He is moving into a very tough period in the second half of 2005, where he is handling grave problems, worse than before. The weight of the world is on him."

Kids say the darnest things


Forget what you think about New York being a lock for Kerry or New Hampshire being solidly Republican. Everything's up for grabs this year. Just check with Scholastic, the venerable education company whose quadrennial polling of school kids has been wrong only twice since 1940. (Spokeswoman Kyle Good says the kids missed Truman/Dewey in 1948 and Kennedy/Nixon in 1960 - but, hey, even the savviest pros got those wrong.)

Scholastic, which drew 660,000 online and paper-ballot voters in 2000, predicted Bush over Gore by a nose. This year, with 390,000 votes already in, Bush is ahead of Kerry by 2,228 votes. And contrary to conventional wisdom, Bush is ahead in New York and neck-and-neck in California. And Kerry is up in such Bush hot spots as Texas and Florida, Florida, Florida. To follow your state, go to www.scholastic.com/news and click on Vote 2004.


The writing's on the wall

You can tell a lot from a man's signature - maybe even if he can win the White House - says Linda Lauren, a fourth-generation psychic and handwriting analyst. Bush's G's and B's are "unusually large," which, she says, "has a lot to do with his feeling prestigious about his family." On the other hand, his handwriting is very small (an indication that "he likes to balance a lot of things at the same time") and very rushed ("like he's trying to get it over with").

Kerry, by contrast, shows "a lot of ego" in his signature. "He slants to the right, which shows a lot of leadership qualities. He's tough and emotionally steadfast." And his J's and K's, Lauren says, show a lot of artistic qualities. So who'll win the White House? Fast and furious? Slow and steady? "Based on the signatures alone, it's too hard a call," Lauren says. "It's that close."


Presidential face off


Forget Spider-Man and Barbie. In a presidential year, it's the candidates' mugs that sell. And www.buycostumes.com has predicted the outcome of the past six White House races based on who's ahead in Halloween mask sales - everything from Ronald Reagan's 1980 landslide to Michael Dukakis' 1988 trouncing to the Bush-Gore squeaker in 2000.

At the moment, Bush is ahead of Kerry, 54% to 46%. But marketing director Diana Krohn cautions that the real onslaught probably won't happen until the end of October. And though Bush, Kerry and Laura Bush masks are all brisk sellers (at $20 a head), fame can be fleeting. The Al Gore mask has been price-slashed to $8.49.


The novelty of it all


Wanna scream at the thought of four more years of Bush? Ready to flush both Johns down the john? America! stores are not only selling political novelties that reflect your Bush-or-Kerry sentiments but are tabulating sales to predict who'll win. The coolest wares: John/John toilet paper; "Bush again?" T-shirts modeled after Edward Munch's "The Scream," and, best of all, Bush and Kerry punching bags.

The company, which has eight retail stores and a Web catalogue, has been predicting presidential horse races since 1988. And this year? So far, combined pro-Bush/anti-Kerry merchandise is leading pro-Kerry/anti-Bush junk by a margin of 51% to 49%. Click on www.americastore.com to cast your vote - or buy a button.