Study Finds Only 32% Leave U.S. High Schools Qualified to Attend College
Wednesday, September 17, 2003
Manhattan Institute for Policy Research

A new Manhattan Institute study, Public High School Graduation and College Readiness Rates in the United States, authored by Manhattan Institute Senior Fellow Jay P. Greene and Senior Research Associate Greg Forster, finds that only 70% of all students in the public high school class of 2001 graduated, and only 32% left high school qualified to attend a four-year college. Furthermore, it finds that only 51% of all black students and 52% of Hispanic students graduate, and only 20% of black and 16% of Hispanic students leave high school ready for college.

Using U.S. Department of Education data, Greene and Forster use a simple and transparent method to estimate public high school graduation rates. They also calculate how many students are "college ready" by determining the percentage of a cohort that graduated from high school, took the courses that colleges require for admission, and demonstrated basic literacy skills.

This study shows that public high schools are particularly failing to serve black and Hispanic students. As long as nearly half of black and Hispanic students fail to graduate, and less than one-fifth leave high school college-ready, no financial aid or college admission policy can effectively increase their college representation.

Highlights of the study include:

Only 70% of all students in public high schools graduate, and only 32% of all students leave high school qualified to attend four-year colleges.

Only 51% of all black students and 52% of all Hispanic students graduate, and only 20% of all black students and 16% of all Hispanic students leave high school college-ready.

The graduation rate for white students was 72%; for Asian students, 79%; and for American Indian students, 54%. The college readiness rate for white students was 37%; for Asian students, 38%; for American Indian students, 14%.

Graduation rates in the Northeast (73%) and Midwest (77%) were higher than the overall national figure, while graduation rates in the South (65%) and West (69%) were lower than the national figure. The Northeast and the Midwest had the same college readiness rate as the nation overall (32%) while the South had a higher rate (38%) and the West had a lower rate (25%).

The state with the highest graduation rate in the nation was North Dakota (89%); the state with the lowest graduation rate in the nation was Florida (56%).

Due to their lower college readiness rates, black and Hispanic students are seriously underrepresented in the pool of minimally qualified college applicants. Only 9% of all college-ready graduates are black and another 9% are Hispanic, compared to a total population of 18-year-olds that is 14% black and 17% Hispanic.

There were an estimated 1,299,000 college-ready 18-year-olds in 2001, compared to the actual number of persons entering college for the first time in that year of 1,341,000. This indicates that there is not a large population of college-ready graduates who are prevented from actually attending college.

The portion of all college freshmen that is black (11%) or Hispanic (7%) is very similar to their shares of the college-ready population (9% for both). This suggests that the main reason these groups are underrepresented in college admissions is that these students are not acquiring college-ready skills in the K-12 system, rather than inadequate financial aid or affirmative action policies.


According to lead author Jay P. Greene, "The public school system can be thought of as a pipeline; students should flow from the start of the pipeline (entering preschool or kindergarten) all the way through to the end (graduating high school prepared for college). To be effective, any strategy for increasing minority representation in higher education has to focus on fixing the leaks in our public school system, ensuring that minority students graduate from high school with the skills needed to be ready for college."

Jay P. Greene is a Senior Fellow at the Manhattan Institute for Policy Research where he conducts research and writes about education policy. He has conducted evaluations of school choice programs around the country and investigated their effects on civic values and integration.

Greg Forster is a Senior Research Associate at the Manhattan Institute's Education Research Office. He is the co-author of several education studies and op-ed articles.

The Education Research Office, a part of the Center for Civic Innovation at the Manhattan Institute for Policy Research, produces high-quality academic research on U.S. education issues, including school choice policies and other aspects of education reform.

This study was funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

For a copy of Public High School Graduation and College Readiness Rates in the United States, please go to: http://www.manhattan-institute.org/ewp_03_embargoed.pdf.

The Manhattan Institute, a 501(c)(3), is a think tank whose mission is to develop and disseminate new ideas that foster greater economic choice and individual responsibility.

www.manhattan-institute.org

www.miedresearchoffice.org

Current Events: In 2002, New York City School District ranked 39 (45 was the worst) with only 42% of our African - American students graduating from high school. Other statistics are equally damaging:
High School Graduation Rates in the United States | Table 8

Graduation Rate by State and Race

New York:
Graduation African- Latino White
Rate American Graduation Graduation
Graduation Rate Rate Rate

70 51 53 82